Will We See a Transition toward Small Churches?

I don't know the answer to the question in the title. I am not a prophet, and given that very few foresaw two months ago what we are experiencing now, there perhaps should be a healthy skepticism of anyone who pretends to know what or when the next state of normalcy looks like. However, it appears that big crowds may remain a big problem for some time. This fascinating interview with Bob Costas (the portion relevant to this discussion starts several minutes in) for the prospects of the return of professional and collegiate sports any time this calendar year could be described as pessimistic but not obviously wrong, and many national trade organizations who have relied as a staple of personal identity, not to mention revenue, on large national and statewide meetings also now find those at significant risk. Many churches obviously pack in large numbers of people in relatively small spaces on a regular basis, and those may be deemed risky beyond the time when most businesses that are less crowded begin to open their doors again.

It is important to note that the worst of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S. and elsewhere have been in places where people can't spread out: large cities such as New York where transit and other aspects of life place people in close proximity, nursing homes (recognizing age and health condition also to be relevant), cruise ships, sporting events, weddings and funerals, church services, and so forth. If much of economic life attempts a comeback, but crowded places remain suspect farther into the future, those types of gathering places will require evaluations (hopefully self-evaluation rather than government mandate, but we have seen instances of irresponsibility that will encourage the government to act).

Church growth experts have long warned that church sanctuaries that are 80% full are for all practical purposes maxed out and churches that reach that level of saturation will begin to decline. Will churches need to rethink that percentage to a lower number in the future? Will seating need to be altered to allow smaller crowds in the same size of sanctuaries? Will more churches go to multiple Sunday morning services to reduce crowding? What about classroom space? Will more churches limit growth beyond a medium size by starting additional congregations to disperse Christians geographically? Are churches truly welcoming if older persons or those with comorbidities are put at risk by attending a crowded facility?

I don't know the answer to any of those questions, but I hope that they are being asked. Worshipping with a congregation for a month or two via videoconferencing is difficult; it will be more challenging for churches if they have to extend that for a much longer time -- or if they don't make changes and have an outbreak of sickness and mortality within their congregations.

I attend a small church, but our seating is extremely tight. That is a reminder that large churches may experience the biggest impact, but medium and small size churches will have questions to answer as well.

And, this post doesn't pretend to know the answers. Perhaps three months from now this whole thing will be in the rear view mirror and life will go back to what it was like the first of the year. Perhaps. However, secular organizations are busily preparing contingency plans for all sorts of possibilities. Churches would be foolish to fail to do the same.